As the market sits today, unfortunately, I don't see an immediate fit for free open source software (FOSS) having a huge impact on the CAE market. It could have some, but not huge. I think the reasons are due to the shear size of the market, complexity of the software, size of the developer community and the accountability of the developed code. Big claims, so let me provide a bit more.
The size of the CAE market is on the size of 10s of thousands to 100s of thousands at the absolute most. The size of those that actually have the time/skills to actively develop is a few % of that. Plus, the culture and expectations of the user community is one of dependence on the commercial vendors to handle everything. There hasn't been an outcry by the user community to provide "the source" or allow access to the internals. In fact, the outcry is usually the exact opposite. The expectations from the user community are immensely high in that they want to adopt a new way of product development (ie simulation), but.. they expect it...
The size of the CAE market is on the size of 10s of thousands to 100s of thousands at the absolute most. The size of those that actually have the time/skills to actively develop is a few % of that. Plus, the culture and expectations of the user community is one of dependence on the commercial vendors to handle everything. There hasn't been an outcry by the user community to provide "the source" or allow access to the internals. In fact, the outcry is usually the exact opposite. The expectations from the user community are immensely high in that they want to adopt a new way of product development (ie simulation), but.. they expect it...
- To be super simple to use and implement
- Extremely accurate with minimal user input
- Reasonably priced
- Fantastic support
Surely not claiming that the shear size and complexity of CAE software is the barrier to a FOSS model. I am claiming that the size of the market and the early stages of mass adoption are the limiting factors right now. There is simply not enough demand and resources out there to really make it work across the board.
The CAE space is very competitive and many people still view it as "nice to have". Until it is mainstream and on the critical path, it will be difficult to see a vendor making the big leap into the wide open world of FOSS.
I am a big fan of the FOSS model in mass adopted applications - firefox, thunderbird, ubuntu, banshee etc... Would love to hear an argument how to take a very competitive, "niche" product like FEA or CFD and make a business model that can survive as FOSS.
Would love to hear alternative arguments to this.
